Understanding the Economics Crisis

A look behind the causes and consequences of the economic crisis, and why it has been difficult to solve.

Background to Economic Crisis

The 1990s and early 2000s was a period of economic prosperity – Low inflation and high economic growth gave an impression of economic stability, but in other areas of the economy there were signs of boom and bust.

  • Housing Bubble. In US and European countries, there was a rapid rise in house prices, which caused a boom in house building and bank lending. In the US, the housing bubble was helped by a boom in mortgage lending. Banks began lending mortgages to people with little regard for their ability to pay back. (housing boom and bust)
  • Bank Lending Bubble. In the bubble years, banks became more aggressive in lending. They would borrow money on money markets to be able to lend more profitable mortgages. Banks became highly leveraged – high amount of debt to assets (deposits) This left them vulnerable to a downturn in the economy.
  • Growth Financial derivatives. The financial boom was helped by a new range of financial derivatives, such as credit default swaps and CDOs. These enabled mortgage companies to sell on their mortgage debt to other banks around the world. This enabled mortgage companies to finance a larger range of new loans.
  • See also: Understanding financial crisis
  • See also: What went wrong with US economy

Credit Crisis

  • From around 2006, US homeowners started to default on their mortgage because of a modest rise in interest rates. House prices started falling. Therefore, banks and mortgage companies started to lose money on their mortgage debt.
  • Because of mortgage defaults in the US, banks around the world started losing money and stopped lending to each other.
  • Full explanation of understanding credit crunch in 22 steps.

Economic Recession

growth

  • The credit crunch led to a fall in bank lending. This led to a decline in investment and lower consumer spending.
  • Also confidence was badly affected by news of bank failures. Consumers became more risk averse and sought to pay off debts rather than spend.
  • Falling house prices also led to a negative wealth effect and lower spending.
  • In 2008, rising oil prices also led to falling living standards, though this was quite minor.
  • The scale of bank losses were very high so there was a substantial fall in lending.
  • Despite cuts in interest rates, and expansionary fiscal policy, consumers were reluctant to spend because they were highly indebted. Also, despite low-interest rates, banks didn’t or couldn’t lend because they were short of cash.
  • This could be caused a ‘balance sheet recession’ which tends to be longer lasting.
  • See: causes of recession, with video on 2008/09 recession

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Economics of the Pound shop

When I was young (let say the 1980s) a Pound shop was a bit of a novelty.

Battle_of_the_pound_shops

Visiting Morecambe, a seaside resort, there would be one or two Pound shops. I only remember being struck how low quality everything was, they were a bit tacky, mainly some useless novelty items and a stick of Blackpool Rock. No self-respecting middle class consumer would consider doing the bulk of their weekly shop at a Pound shop. But, in recent years, Pound shops have emerged as one of the fastest growing retail outlets in the UK. Suddenly the High Street is awash with shops offering everything for a £1. It raises some interesting economic questions:

  • How do Pound shops manage to sell so many goods for £1?
  • Why have they become so successful in recent years?
  • To what extent can they challenge traditional retail, like the Supermarket Giants?
  • Are they good for society or should we be worried about the proliferation of Pound Shops?
  • Is there growth sustainable?
  • What happens when inflation reduces the value of a Pound?

The success behind the Pound shops

The reason Pound shops can sell so many goods so cheaply is due to basic economic principles.

  • Buying in bulk. Bulk buying is a classic economy of scale. The more that you purchase, the lower the average costs involved. Large global Pound shop chains can buy whole containers directly from China at a much lower price than buying through distributors.
  • Cutting out distributors. Typically, retail shops will buy from a distributor, who in turn buys from the source. This saves shops having to deal with many suppliers. But, Pound shops can buy in sufficient bulk to be able to get direct from the manufacturers, often in China / Asia.
  • Small margins. Pound shops run on very small margins. Small margins only work with high volume and a tight control of costs. The high volume in turn enables firms to continue bulk buying at low cost.
  • Low cost encourages more purchases. On the BBC series about Pound Shop Wars – I liked the quote from one customer who said his ‘Pound shop was most expensive shop in town. – I always see something more to buy.’

Why have Pound shops become so successful in recent years?

  • Changing consumer patterns. The difficult few years have encouraged consumers to seek bargains and low prices. In the past five years, we have experienced cost -push inflation, stagnant real wages and falling living standards. The squeeze on disposable incomes have made Pound shops increasingly attractive.
  • Strength of Chinese manufacturing. The relentless growth of low cost Chinese manufacturing has enabled an increase in the choice of low cost manufactured goods.
  • External economies of scale. The growth of the whole industry has encouraged manufacturers to consider producing specifically for the Pound shop market. Manufacturers are increasingly prepared to prepare products which can fit in with the Pound Shop model. Also, the growth of Pound shop chains have enabled them to gain internal economies of scale as they grow – leading to lower average costs for the big chains.
  • Little internet competition. In contrast to big ticket items, like electronic goods, Pound shops face little competition from the internet. Amazon do relatively little trade for items costing a £1 – Post and packaging become a bigger % of the price the cheaper the good is. Many retail shops have closed down due to internet competition, these retail spaces have often been taken by Pound Shops.

Can they challenge the Supermarket Giants?

At £1, Pound shops are limited. They don’t sell fresh produce. They cannot offer a comprehensive range of goods. But savvy consumers will begin to cherry pick doing half their shop in Pound shops and buying the remainder elsewhere. It will definitely reduce the profits of supermarkets, though I can’t see them being replaced.

What is the impact on the growth of Pound shops?

  • For consumers, generally they are good for keeping prices low. They offer a range of cheap goods, but also put pressure on other supermarkets to match the low prices. It is reducing the market power of the big Tescos and Sainsbury’s
  • Big Pound retail shops are squeezing smaller independent retailers who cannot compete with the costs of Pound shops. Though they face competition from a range of other sources, such as supermarkets.
  • Pound shops can actually be controversial. Some towns, e.g. Harrogate have seen protests against Pound shops for fear that it ‘reduces the value of the town’. Pound shops give an impression of being low quality, cheap and cheerful. Not everyone likes the idea of a High Street being dominated by Pound shops, squeezing out higher class traditional shops.
  • They put pressure on suppliers to keep reducing their costs to remain competitive. It squeezes the profit margins of big traditional firms. 

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Threats and opportunities of Chinese growth on UK economy

Readers Question: Hello I recently saw a programme How China Fooled the World – with Robert Peston and I was wondering what threats and opportunities does the growth of economies like China and India provide to the UK economy?

According to the IMF, in 2010, the Chinese economy was $5,878 billion – second only to the US economy. If we use GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), the size of the Chinese economy is estimated to be even larger, at around $10,119 billion.

China also has a growth rate, averaging close to 10% a year. Even if there is a slowdown in this record rate of economic growth, China is forecast to become the dominant world economy within 10 or 20 years. India is another sleeping giant. Although India’s growth rate is slower than China it is the second most populous country and is still catching up with the rest of the world.

Opportunities of Chinese / Indian growth on UK economy

Low cost of manufactured goods. One major consequence of economic growth in China is that the UK has benefited from lower prices of many manufactured goods, imported from China. If you have ever wondered how Pound shops can sell so many goods for £1 – the answer is directly importing from China. China’s success in keeping costs low has created a downward pressure on prices. This helps to keep inflation in the UK low and improve living standards for UK consumers.

Growing consumer class. So far China’s growth has mostly concentrated on export led growth, leading to a large current account surplus. However, the next stage of Chinese economic development will likely see a growing consumer class who wish to purchase more luxury goods and services. This provides a significant opportunity for UK exporters of goods and services. Because of the size of the Chinese economy, there is strong latent demand. This could benefit UK exporters of  high value added goods, such as nuclear technology, chemicals, cars (see: what UK exports). Also, there will be growing demand for UK services, such as university education / learning English. So far China’s growth has been somewhat one-sided – we have seen UK manufacturing firms squeezed out of business, but the other side of the equation is that British firms will have a strong growing market in China.

Lower costs of production. Another big advantage of the development of the Chinese and Indian economy is that it provides UK firms with potential lower costs of production. For example, many UK service centres have been shifted to English speaking centres in India. This dramatically reduces labour costs, leading to lower costs for telephones e.t.c. Also, an English firm which innovates a new product can use the low cost manufactured process of China to bring the product to the market at a competitive price. This is speeding up the globalisation of production. Increasingly we see a product produced in different sections of the world. e.g. the most famous is probably ‘Apple – designed in California, produced in China.’

Alternative to US / Europe. Traditionally, the UK economy has been reliant on exports to the EU and US. With the EU and US economy relatively stagnant, growth in exports to non-EU countries suggests the economy will become more diversified and less reliant on the EU trading block.  (see: UK exports to non-EU countries)

 

Threats of Chinese growth

Increased competition for raw materials. Chinese growth has come at a cost of seeing rising price of raw materials. For example, during the recession of 2008-13, we saw periods of rising oil prices. This is unusual – usually during a recession in the West, oil prices fall. But, due to the growing demand from China and Asia, oil prices have been rising. This has squeezed living standards in the West. We faced both recession and rising prices. As the China and India economy grows, the pressure on raw materials is likely to exacerbate.

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Vertical barriers to entry

Readers question “If a firm does not have access to the supply of a good then the market will not be contestable. E.g. Oil firms could restrict the supply of petrol to petrol stations, making it difficult for new firms to enter. E.g. for airlines a big issue is whether you can get a landing slot at a big airport.” Could you please explain?

bp petrol station
BP petrol station

A contestable market has freedom of entry and exit, and low sunk costs.

In economics, vertical integration refers to a firm gaining control over different stages of a supply chain.

For example in the petrol industry, we could simplify the industry to four different stages of production

  1. Oil drilling. – When firms build an oil well and pump out raw crude oil.
  2. Oil refining – the process where the crude oil is refined into petrol / diesel.
  3. Transport – where the petrol is transported to retail markets.
  4. Retail – Where petrol stations sell petrol / diesel to customers at the different petrol stations, such as Esso, Shell, BP, Tesco, Asda, and independent petrol retailers.

Suppose, you want to set up a petrol station to sell petrol in your local town. The costs of buying a premise to sell petrol is relatively low. The big difficulty will be buying petrol from the large oil companies who produce and refine petrol. There are very significant economies of scale in drilling and refining oil so that market is not very contestable. It is dominated by a small number of large firms.

The big oil companies, like Shell, BP, Esso may decide to collude and sell petrol to independent retailers at a very high price making it unprofitable for independent retailers  to sell petrol in a petrol station.

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Flood defences as a public good

cyclists-flood

Here in Oxford, there is water everywhere. Yesterday, the main road into town (Abingdon Road) was closed due to flooding, and the cost to business and householders will be quite significant. There is a danger of even worse flooding to come. In one sense, it is an act of God. No one can do anything …

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The growing size of the welfare state in the UK

The welfare state typically includes all benefit payments (pensions, unemployment insurance, child benefits, income support e.t.c). The modern UK welfare state was founded in 1948 with the aim of providing ‘cradle to the grave protection’. The intention was that welfare payments would help people through temporary periods of difficulty, such as sickness and unemployment. There was also to be a contributory state pension system. Since 1948, the cost of the welfare state has (adjusted for inflation) increased from £11b to £200bn an 18* increase.

Is this a great achievement – enabling the elimination of absolute poverty? or does it represent a failure to prevent unnecessary government spending?

benefit spending UK

  • Nominal government benefits have increased from £471m in 1947-48 to £200,978 m in 2011-12 (£200bn)
  • In 2012, state pensions cost £74bn making state pensions the largest component of social security spending.

Adjusted for inflation, the increase in social security payments is still significant.

uk-benefit-spending-real-terms

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UK property bubble

Just five years after the start of global credit crunch and the UK housing crash, it seems incongruous to be talking about another UK property bubble. It is a paradox that the UK has experienced five long years of recession – the worst decline in living standards in recent times, and yet, property prices still continue to go through the roof.

It’s symbolic of the UK’s unbalanced economy that on the one hand, we have falling real incomes, but on the other hand, property prices continue to outstrip expectations.

But, firstly, does the UK really have a property bubble?

house-prices-2001-2013q2

Prices in many parts of the country are still below the pre-crisis peak. London is the main property trouble spot.

The Office for National Statistics show average prices in London  increased by 11% in the year to November 2013. The performance of the  London housing market dragged the national house price inflation up from 3.5% to 5.4%. Also, it is luxury houses that are seeing the price rise fastest. ‘Prime’ houses worth over £1,000 per sq ft are now 27% higher than 2007. (London property market needs to be cooled, Guardian)

The UK’s geographical property bubble

ftb-house-pirce-earnings

Source: Nationwide  | House price to income

London property prices have reached a record 7.5 times average earnings for first time buyers. But, in the north, the ratio is only 3.1. By 2018, a forecast by the ‘Item Club’ predict the average London home will cost more than £600,000. That would be 3.5 times the average in Northern Ireland and 3.3 times the average in the north-east of England.

The UK property bubble is highly geographical. It is in London, the South East and other selected hotspots that house prices have risen significantly. In other areas of the country, house prices remain depressed. There is no coherent movement in national house prices. The old adage of ‘location’ remains the key issue to explain the property mystery.

Why is parts of the UK experiencing a property bubble?

  • Supply. The number of households in the UK is rising significantly faster than the supply of housing. You don’t have to be a student of economics, to know that if the demand for housing is rising 250,000 a year, and the supply is increasing by just 100,000 – this is creating a strong underlying upward pressure on prices. Supply is often cited for explaining the difference between the fate of the US housing market and the UK. The US saw a collapse in prices after the global credit crunch because there was a large stock of unsold houses. But, the UK doesn’t have that. See also – more on UK Housing supply
  • Demand from buy to let investors. Housing is still seen as a good investment. London is particularly attractive to foreign investors, looking to buy houses.
  • Inelastic demand. The housing shortage means that either options of renting or buying are financially unattractive. But, despite the record house prices, many first time buyers would like to try buying – even if it means borrowing from parents, taking out a large mortgage or getting on the governments ‘Help to buy scheme’.
  • Governments Help to buy scheme. Some analysts have criticised the governments Help to Buy scheme, which is giving help for first time buyers to get a mortgage. Essentially it is propping up unsustainable demand by enabling people to pay higher prices. It does nothing to tackle the underlying reason for the high house prices. It also reflects the piecemeal approach of the government to the housing market. Building 150,000 extra houses a year is a real political headache. Helping people borrow more is easier, but only a temporary fix.
  • See also: Why are UK prices so high?

Problems of the UK property bubble

  • Geographical inequality. Young workers living in property hotspots are facing difficulty in getting a place to live. A high percentage of disposable income is going on renting or mortgage.

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Does Temporary Inflation Cause Permanent Inflation?

UK cpi-inflation-89-19

An interesting question at the moment is to what extent does temporary cost-push factors lead to a permanent rise in underlying inflation? Temporary cost-push factors include rising commodity prices, rising food prices, higher taxes. These goods are often volatile so the increase is often temporary. In the case of taxes, the price increases last for …

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