Question: Are people hungry because the world does not produce enough food?

Readers Question: Are People hungry because the world does not produce enough food? No. Essentially it is a problem of distribution. In particular, in developing countries, many people lack sufficient income to buy enough food The United Nations, World Food Programme WFP, states 925 million people do not have enough to eat and 98 percent …

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Questions on Money Supply and Inflation

Readers Question: Does money printing/QE always lead to inflation and price increases? No. Increasing the money supply does not necessarily cause inflation. In particular, we have seen a large increase in the monetary base (narrow money) that hasn’t led to an increase in the general price level. If you look at link between money supply …

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Criticisms of Bank of England forecasting by D.Blanchflower

Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England, writes a critical piece on the Bank of England’s forecasting record in the Independent. “The second chart gives cause for concern because for the umpteenth time the MPC is forecasting rapid recovery, which is extremely unlikely to happen, and it seems that little has been …

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Question: Do the US have to depend on others to buy their bonds?

Readers Question: Do the US have to depend on others to buy their bonds? The US doesn’t have to rely on other countries to buy their bonds. If there is sufficient domestic demand for buying US bonds, there is no need to rely on foreign investors. However, at the moment, about 30% of US bonds …

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Question: How can countries with high debt have a strong currency?

Readers Question: How is it possible for countries with massive debt to have a strong currency, e.g Japan and the US?

Sometimes countries can have large debts that are sustainable. In the case of Japan and the US, the general consensus is that there is a very low risk of default.

us-national-debt-percent-gdp-since-1980

US debt is very large, but debt interest payments are manageable. The US has had much higher debt to GDP ratios in the past (US Debt history). Also, markets expect the US economy to grow in the future (already first signs of economic recovery in US). This will help reduce debt to GDP ratio in the future.

Therefore, buying US securities is still seen as a fairly safe investment. It is unlikely the US will face inflation or debt default, so investors are currently willing to hold dollar assets.

japan-debt

Japan has an even higher level of public sector debt (over 220% of GDP) But, Japanese bond yields are very low. This is helped by a large pool of domestic savings. There is a high willingness to buy debt. See: Japan debt

In recent months, there has been an increase in demand for Japanese bonds from foreign investors. Foreign investors have been buying short-term Japanese Treasury Bills. A significant reason for this is that investors prefer the idea of holding Japanese bonds to Eurozone debt.

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Indian Economy 2012

An Overview of the Indian economy in 2012 and its prospects for the future. (Depressed by events in Europe, a look at an economy with a very different economic outlook). Summary In the past few years, the Indian economy has been growing rapidly – (e.g.  8.5%2010-11). However, this growth has led to an increase in …

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Japan Savings Ratio 2012

Japan has traditionally had a high savings ratio, but, in past decade the savings ratio has fallen to be close to European / US levels. Graph showing Japan Savings Rates Japan’s economy chasing illusions Since 1998, though Japanese saving rates have declined. The graph is a bit hard to read, but, since 2004, Japanese saving …

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Tragedy of Greece – Could it be any worse?

In 2011, Greek Manufacturing output fell 15.5% Unemployment currently stands at 20.9% Greek youth unemployment stands at 48% – surpassing even Spain’s youth unemployment Government debt burden stands at 160% of GDP. Despite all the austerity measures, the Greek budget deficit has not fallen because the economy is shrinking so quickly. On top of this …

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