Why Government Debt Forecasts were wrong

One feature of the recent crisis has been the degree to which governments underestimated the forecast rise in government borrowing. The IMF produced a report which looked at forecast debt from 2007, and what debt actually was three years later. In ten selected countries, the increase in the gross debt ratio 31.8 2007 forecast for …

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Why Did Europe Expect Fiscal Consolidation to Work?

Readers Question. Can you explain why the Government and Economic Commentators  are talking about a multiplier (in relation to budget cuts) of between 0.5 and 1, whereas I always thought that the GDP multiplier was bigger than this. Just to summarise a multiplier of 0.5 would mean fiscal consolidation (spending cuts) of £1bn, would lead …

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How the Budget Deficit was cut by 25%?

The government have repeatedly pointed to their ‘achievement’ of cutting the budget deficit by 25% in the past two years. But, how has this been achieved? and has it actually helped the UK economy? UK Net Borrowing 2007-08 £40.3bn 2008-09 £104.2bn 2009-10 £167.4bn 2010-11 £145.1bn 2011-12 £119.3bn 2012-13 £127.3bn – estimated This shows a 25% …

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UK Retail Sales Oct 2012

The amount of UK retail sales increased by 2.5% in the 12 months from September 2011 to September 2012. This measure includes the amount (quantity) of goods in all retailing, seasonally adjusted. The amount spent (value of goods) increased by 3.2% Annual store price inflation was estimated to be 0.7 %. This suggests that the …

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OBR Admit Failure to Predict the Double Dip Recession

One feature of the current economic malaise is that growth predictions for the UK economy have been consistently over-optimistic. For example, the Office for Budget Responsibility originally forecast economic growth of 5.7% between 2010 to mid 2012. The economy failed to meet this target, growing by just 0.9% during this period. To be fair to …

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Fiscal Multiplier and European Austerity

The fiscal multiplier looks at how much an initial change in injections affects real GDP.  For example, if increased government spending of £1bn causes overall GDP to rise by £1.5bn, the multiplier effect is 1.5 If £1bn worth of tax rises causes real GDP to fall by £0.5bn, the multiplier effect is (0.5) Since 2009, …

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What Happens if a Major Currency Gets Backed by Gold?

Readers Question: What would happen if a major currency, such as the dollar gets backed by gold again? If a major currency was backed by gold it means the government must hold sufficient gold to convert representative money into gold at the promised exchange rate. It means that the country would not be able to increase the money …

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