Causes of Europe’s deflation problem

The European Union is facing the prospect of a serious bout of deflation (or at least, very low rates of inflation / disinflation) Deflation occurs when prices fall. But, very low rates of inflation are considered to raise problems associated with deflation. In the Eurozone, the main index of inflation has fallen to 0.7% –  …

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Britain’s recovery – strong or weak?

There are different ways of looking at the UK recovery. Firstly, we can look at the damage done to the economy since the peak in 2008. The black lines suggests a possible pre-crisis trend rate of economic growth. A rough rule of thumb, suggests that had economic growth been maintained at the pre-crisis trend rate …

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UK economic recovery 2013

The UK economy has experienced the most prolonged decline in real GDP on record. GDP is still lower than before the start of the great recession in 2008. This unprecedented recession has been prolonged – despite a sharp depreciation in the Pound, and a raft of unconventional monetary policies. However, recent statistics suggest there are …

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Q.E. for Greece and the Eurozone

My Q: can you see any reason the ECB can’t do a version of QE for Greece? Not necessarily the US/UK way of buying bank bonds and hoping; there may be other ways? But if they could do it somehow, interest-free, so that the new money gets out into the economy, with the proviso that …

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Hopes for UK economy

Despite a shrinkage in manufacturing and widening trade deficit, the IMF have hinted that the UK economy is beginning to emerge from one of the longest periods of economic stagnation / recession on records. They marginally increased their forecast for UK growth to 0.9% for 2013. Does the recent good news give hope to the …

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When will interest rates rise – 2013?

When interest rates were cut to 0.5% in March 2009, few would have expected them to remain at 0.5 until the present time. Yet, we have seen an unprecedented period of zero interest rates. There is much speculation about: When interest rates will rise? How much will interest rates to increase to? What will be …

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Policies to increase bank lending

lending-rates-base-rates

In a previous post, we saw how bank lending in the UK fell during the credit crunch, contributing to the length and depth of the recession. Because of this the Bank of England and Government have sought to try and increase bank lending – in order to help stimulate economic growth. Fall in bank lending. …

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