Russian economic crisis

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With economic sanctions and a plummeting price of oil, the Russian economy is seeing a real economic crisis. The value of the rouble is falling – causing inflation and a decline in living standards. Government tax revenues are falling as oil tax revenues decline. On top of a falling Rouble, the economy faces recession due to declining export revenues, falling real incomes, a collapse in confidence and higher interest rates.

Causes of Russian economic crisis

Oil dependent economy. The Russian economy has done well in recent years from high oil and gas prices. This has led to strong export revenues and government tax revenues. In 2012, the oil and gas sector accounted for 52% of federal tax funds and 70% of exports But, the near 50% in oil prices have caused the economy to suffer. Unfortunately, the strength of the oil industry has meant alternative manufacturing industries remain undeveloped – and unable to benefit from more competitive export prices. The Russian oil economy is an example of the Dutch disease.

Falling oil prices. The oil price has collapsed from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to just above $60 in Dec 2014. Falling oil prices have caused a big fall in export revenue, a fall in real GDP and a fall in government tax revenues.

Economic sanctions. Sanctions imposed by the EU and US since the issues around the Ukraine have damaged the ability of some Russian firms to raise finance. On their own, the sanctions are quite limited in effect, but combined with the timing, they are a big blow to confidence in the Russian economy.

Recession. Due to the 50% devaluation in the Rouble, the price of imported goods has increased, leading to imported inflation. With inflation running at 9%, consumers are seeing a fall in real wages. Wages, pensions and benefits are not keeping up with rising cost of living. This is causing lower spending. The Central Bank faces a difficult dilemma – because of the recession it needs to cut interest rates, but the falling Rouble has caused it to increase interest rates to 17% – to try and protect the value of the Rouble – but, this will further reduce spending and lower growth. (See: effect of higher interest rates). With the oil and gas sector hit, big firms are likely to lay off workers, due to the fall in demand and revenue. This rise in unemployment will exacerbate the recession. It’s a tough combination of factors, which give the government and Central Bank little room for manoeuvre.

russia-rouble-independent

Source: Independent

Falling Rouble. Despite high foreign currency reserves, the Rouble has fallen in value, suggesting investors have lost confidence in the Russian Central Bank, the Russian economy and the Rouble. The problem of the falling confidence in the Rouble, is that it is encouraging capital flight – where Russians seek to protect the value of their wealth  by transferring it into other currencies outside Russia. This is a toxic mix – a self-reinforcing cycle of falling Rouble, causing more people to give up on the Rouble.

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Question: Why do the costs of living keep going up?

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UK inflation-real-wages-2006-19

Readers Question: Why do the costs of living keep going up and our wages do not match it?

In recent years, many people have seen the cost of living rising faster than wages. This has led to a fall in real wages – wages increased less than inflation. This effectively means a fall in the number of money consumers have to spend on goods and services, leading to a decline in living standards.

  • The cost of living measures the price of goods and services that we typically buy. This rise in the cost of living is measured by the inflation rate.
  • If the inflation rate is higher than our nominal wage growth, then we see a decline in real wages. We are financially worse off.

This is not always the case. In the twentieth century, there was an unprecedented rise in living standards with the average wage of workers significantly increasing – enabling workers to be better off.

Ways to become worse off

  • Inflation higher than wage growth – falling real wages
  • Falling wages – and constant prices –  leading to falling real wages
  • Higher taxes, leading to less disposable income – disposable income measures after tax income. Your real wage may increase by 2%, but if income taxes rise 3%, your disposable income will be less.
  • Higher living costs leading to less discretionary income. If you have to spend more on essential items, such as heating, insurance and travel costs, debt repayments – then the amount of money left over after spending on essentials falls. We say this is a fall in discretionary income (though people may use term disposable income). Again, you will feel worse off because there is less money left over to spend.
  • Lower benefits. Many low-income people rely on government benefits, such as unemployment insurance, housing benefit or income support. If benefits fall behind inflation, this will create a fall in real income. This will be quite noticeable because people on low income are already stretched and have limited disposable income.

Falling real wages are quite rare in Western Europe since 1945. Typically we have seen positive economic growth and rising real incomes. People are definitely better off than 50 years ago. The graph below shows that since 2008, the rise in living standards has temporarily ended and become negative.

UK real wages

uk-wages-inflation-01-14

It is a similar situation in many other developed economies, such as US and Europe.

Reasons for falling real wages

Negative economic growth. If there is a recession – which means a fall in real GDP – then average incomes are likely to fall. Firms will be cutting wages and / or cutting jobs, therefore there will be a decline in living standards.

However, we can also see falling real wages during economic growth. An interesting feature of this recovery is that despite economic growth (rising real GDP), real incomes are still falling. How can real incomes fall, when there is positive economic growth?

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Reducing medical costs in US

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Readers Question: The recent issue of health insurance coverage (the fact that everyone must have it or pay a penalty, and that this is causing everyone’s premiums to go up) has me wondering: why can’t the U.S. simply lower overall costs of everything, not just health insurance, but medical treatment costs, as well as all costs of living/all merchandise of any kind, but not lower anyone’s wages? 

Yes, the US could reduce health care costs as a % of GDP without lowering wages and with only a minimal effect on health care standards.

The US spends more on health care than anywhere else in the world.

total health care spending - list of countries

Note, this is health care spending per capita – and the US has one of the highest per capita incomes in the world.

US vs British health care

For all the money the US spend on health care, there isn’t a significant improvement in living standards.

% of health care spending as % of GDPGovt spending as % of total health carePer Capita expenditure 2006 (PPP)Doctors per 10,000 populationNurses / midwives per 10,000Hospital beds per 10,000Life Expectancymale obesity
UK8.287.3281523128398022%
US15.345.367192694317831%

US health care costs were 7% of GDP in 1970. UK was 4% of GDP in 1970 (Runaway health care costs) Health care costs have been rising very fast in the past few decades. Aspects of the way private health care insurance is set up means this is more likely.

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How can inflation fall, whilst prices are rising?

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UK-cpi-inflation-2007-19

Readers Question: Would it be possible for a nation to claim that is reducing inflation rate successfully through economic measures,  however at same time is allowing increase of commodities prices such as bread, meat, and etc… Firstly a fall in the inflation rate, means prices are still rising. Just at a slower rate. For example …

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UK Population trends and forecasts

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Since 1964 the population of the UK has grown by over 10 million people (18.7%).  About 50% of this growth has occurred in the past 15 years. In recent years, the rate of population growth has exceeded 0.6% a year. UK population predictions The biggest population growth is predicted in England, and the south east …

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Does the UK have a housing bubble?

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Readers Question: Do you think the help to buy scheme is fuelling a housing bubble? Only about 3% of houses are bought through this method but do you think that it is likely that a bubble will develop?

In a way, I think you answer the question yourself in stating that only 3% of houses are bought through this method

With such a small percentage of homes bought through this scheme, it is not going to be a major cause of a housing bubble; however, in a relatively significant way, it will add to housing demand. Given the inelastic nature of housing supply, it will make a contribution to pushing up house prices.

Without the help to buy scheme would people have bought houses anyway? I’m not sure. I think the scheme will definitely help some to get a mortgage, and therefore buy rather than renting. In that regard it is adding to housing demand, and therefore pushing up prices, but only a small amount.

Will a housing bubble develop?

This is a more difficult question. There are different types of housing bubbles.

One is the housing bubble experienced by US, Ireland and Spain – where property prices rose substantially above average earnings, and then fell by up to 50%. This is because house prices in these countries became divorced from the fundamentals of housing supply and demand. When the mortgage market experienced difficulties, demand fell and prices fell significantly. The crucial thing about US, Ireland and Spain was that after the housing bubble and bust, there was a large excess supply of housing. Therefore, when demand fell, prices fell considerably.

uk-irish-house-prices

See: Ireland Housing bubble and bust

The UK housing market behaved differently. When demand fell in 2007/08 because of the credit crunch, prices did drop by 20%. But, house prices stabilised much quicker, and then – defying many predictions – began to rise quite rapidly. Meaning that in the UK, house prices in many areas are higher than before the crash.

The main difference is that in the UK, there was no excess supply of housing; there was no boom in home building. Therefore, when the crash came, there was still this fundamental shortage of housing, which keeps prices ‘artificially’ high.

Why UK property prices may be overpriced

uk-house-prices-2001-2013q2

  • Interest rates set to rise. UK interest rates have stayed at zero since early 2009; this period of ultra low interest rates has benefited the property market and kept mortgages affordable. If interest rates rise back to ‘normal’ rates (e.g. around 5% – many homeowners will see a sharp rise in the cost of mortgages, causing demand to fall. The Bank of England recently did a survey and found a two-percentage-point rise in mortgage interest rates would likely raise the proportion of mortgagors with a debt service ratio (DSR) of at least 40% from its current level of 4% to about 6% (360,000 to 480,000 households)

    nw-affordability-index
    UK housing – prices kept affordable by low interest rates.
  • House price to income ratios. House prices have risen much faster than incomes, meaning the younger generation are not able to get a mortgage. The average age of mortgage holders has increased, and the deposit required has also gone up. Because house prices are so expensive, there are many who cannot consider buying.
    ftb-house-price-earnings

    House price to earning ratios for first time buyers. The ratio is 5.0 significantly higher than previous decades.

  • Buy to let market. With home ownership rates falling, the growth in demand for housing is coming from investors.

    housing

    These investors are more likely to be sensitive to changing house prices. If there is a sustained drop in prices, this may be magnified by investors leaving the UK housing market.

  • Economic growth is still fragile. Although the UK recovery is reasonably strong, the Eurozone looks weak with anaemic growth and the threat of deflation; there is a strong possibility that a weak EU economy could act as a drag on UK growth.

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Paradoxes of Coalition Government

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How has the coalition government fared on its economic policies? Firstly, there are quite a few paradoxes. Ignore own promises. The first paradox of the coalition government is the best thing they did was to ignore their own advice. When they came to power, they promised spending cuts, austerity and a balanced budget within a …

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Government spending cuts to 35% of GDP

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Firstly, I thought it might be helpful to talk about the different types of spending cuts that people refer to.

  • An actual cut in government spending. e.g. one year we spend £39bn on defence, the next year that is cut to £38 bn. This is a nominal cut of £1bn. The real cut will be even bigger.
  • A cut in real government spending. If inflation is 3% and government spending on education rises by 1%, that is a real cut of 2%. Departments will still have to cut back on wages and spending because with inflation higher than spending rises, they can afford less spending. It is fair to call this a spending cut
  • A cut in % of real GDP government-spending-percent-gdp-obr-14 Note figures for 2018-19 are a forecast. The big issues is that the Chancellor has proposed reducing the size of government spending as a % of GDP to lowest since 1948. Real government spending will rise, but as a % of national income it will be lower.

    Suppose, real GDP rises by 3%, but one department sees a rise in real spending of 1%. In this case, the department has a smaller share of national income, but at the same time has a real increase in the amount of money. This isn’t a cut in government spending, but it is cutting the share of GDP spent on that department.

  • A cut in quality of services. This is even more subjective. Suppose economic growth is 3% a year, but we increase the NHS budget by 4%. This is a real increase, and we are spending a higher % of national income on health. However, some may argue the demand for health care is rising by 8% a year due to rise in number of old people, rise in obesity e.t.c. Therefore, unless we match the demand for rising health care, it will lead to a cut in the quality of service and a rise in waiting lists. It is disingenuous to call a 4% real rise in spending a cut, but people’s experience of the NHS may feel like they are experiencing a cut.

Government spending as a pie chart

UK-government-spending

Which piece of pie should be cut?

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