Interest rates are a tool of monetary policy. When the economy is overheating, the Central Bank can raise interest rates to cool demand and avoid an inflationary boom. In an ideal world, the Central Bank would make small adjustments in interest rates to fine-tune the economy and avoid booms and busts, but the situation the …
As the chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was announcing his radical budget of energy bailout, and tax cuts for corporations and high-income earners, the markets took a dim view. Sterling fell and bond yields on government debt rose as investors sold UK bonds in response to the deteriorating outlook. Uniquely for such a large change of …
The UK government faces a perilous situation. In the short-term, there is a combined threat of an energy crisis, high inflation, risk of an imminent recession and a falling value of Sterling. On top of that, there are long-term problems such as climate change, a slowdown in growth and productivity, and rising debt to GDP. …
An examination of UK house price affordability. UK House price to earnings ratios (all buyers) reached a peak in 2022. Above the 2009 peak, which preceded the housing price falls. The house price to earnings ratio is most extreme in London, with the ratio reaching 11 times salary. Housing prices in the North, Scotland and …
In recent months, the Pound Sterling has fallen against the dollar to levels not seen since 1985. This reflects long-term concerns about the UK economy, Brexit, the winter energy crisis and concerns about an imminent recession. The pound has fallen 16% this year, and the last month was the worst since 2016. The Pound is …
The Russian fossil fuel industry is facing a real crisis. Western sanctions and Russia’s own embargo on exports to the West mean that the industry is facing long-term decline. Already there have been reports of ‘capping’ of natural gas facilities. This means that natural gas is burnt at its source because the industry cannot sell …
The UK is heading for an energy crisis this winter, with average bills set to rise from £1,100 per year to at least £3,600. And with the possibility of prices rising to over £5,000 in January 2023. The lowest income families may see energy costs rise from 7% to 24% of income. (Link) For better-off …
The EU relies heavily on Russia for the import of natural gas – around 40% of all natural gas at the start of 2022. Since June 2021, there has been a 60% cut in Russian gas, and this has caused considerable distress in the form of higher prices, inflation, lower economic growth and potentially devastating …