The economic implications of coronavirus and the widespread closure of economies present a unique set of challenges for policymakers. The usual tools for dealing with a recession are inadequate, the over-riding need is to provide a basic safety net for the millions of people who will see a fall or complete drop in income. It …
Readers Question: Undertake an evaluation of the causes of economic instability and the role, if any, that the government can play in reducing economic instability by constraining their discretion in policy making. Economic instability involves a shock to the usual workings of the economy. Instability tends to reduce confidence and lead to lower investment, lower …
Originally published in March 2015. Current inflation rate (Feb 2020) is 1.3%. I was 0.7% out. But there was no skill in predicting inflation of 2%. If Ii had to predict inflation for 2025, I would predict the same = 2%. Reader’s Question: What will be the inflation rate in 2020? Firstly, I can’t resist …
The optimal inflation rate is often considered to be around 2%. For example: The UK target inflation of 2% +/-1 The ECB target inflation of less than 2% US Federal Reserve target inflation of less than 2% (But from 2020 are likely to make inflation target symmetrical like the UK) Why Central Banks wish to …
The competitiveness of British industry refers to whether British goods/service are more attractive to consumers than in other countries. A big factor is the relative price of British goods and services compared to other economies. However, as well as price competition, for many goods non-price competition will be important. For example, British fashion labels may …
Readers Question: How does the MPC predict future inflation? Inflation is caused by a mixture of demand-pull and cost-push factors. Therefore, the MPC will look at many statistics which give an indication of whether the economy is reaching full employment and causing inflationary pressures. This will include rate of economic growth, unemployment and the amount …
Readers Question: Can inflation cause a recession? Inflation is not the main cause of recessions. Usually, recessions are caused by factors such as high-interest rates, fall in confidence, fall in bank lending and decline in investment. However, it is possible that cost-push inflation can contribute to a recession, especially if inflation is above nominal wage …
The interest rate cycle is closely related to the economic or trade cycle. In theory, movements in interest rates should mirror the economic cycle. If the economy is growing strongly and inflationary pressures increasing – Central Banks will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and prevent inflation. If the economy enters into recession …