Housing supply in UK

One measure announced in this years budget was government support for mortgages loans. A new Help to Buy scheme will allow people to obtain a 20% interest-free loan from the government, as long as they put down a 5% deposit and buy a newly-built property

However, some have suggested the fundamental problem in the UK housing market is the persistent shortage of housing – and increasing the availability of credit doesn’t directly address this problem. The number of households is forecast to grow by 232,000 a year until 2033, and yet the current rate of home construction is struggling to increase above 100,000 a year.

In 2007 the Government set a target of increasing the supply of housing to 240,000 additional homes per year by 2016. (link) Within this overall target was a commitment to deliver at least 70,000 affordable homes per year by 2010-11, of which 45,000 were to be new social rented homes. However, since the credit crunch of 2008, this target has severely fallen behind as housing construction has slumped.

supply

 

housing-supply

Source: House building Quarterly Dec 2012

Housing completions have fallen close to 100,000 a year – well below level needed to meet the growth in the number of households.

There is hope improved mortgage availability will increase private sector construction. But, it doesn’t resolve other issues, such as planning regulations and local opposition to building homes on a large scale.

Demand growing faster than supply

Screen Shot 2013-03-21 at 09.35.33

Graph showing that demand for housing stock has been growing faster than net additions to housing stock, pushing up house prices.

source: Understanding supply constraints in UK housing market, Shelter

Forecasts for future number of households

Despite a lack of housing supply, the number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.5 million in 2033, an increase of 5.8 million (27 per cent) over 2008, or 232,000 households per year. (Household projections 2008-2033 – Data.gov)

Implications of Housing Shortages

1.House prices will continue to rise in long-term

 

adjusted-inflation-house-prices

Despite two housing crashes, real house prices show a remorseless upward trend. The limited supply also tends to make house prices more volatile. Because supply is relatively inelastic a small change in demand can cause a significant change in price. This is a major factor behind the UK housing market’s tendency to boom and bust.

2. Housing will become more expensive as percentage of income

house-price-earnings

The ratio of house prices to earnings for first time buyers is already higher than mid 1980s – despite the housing correction of 2008/09.

If the long term trend of rising population combined with limited supply, this is likely to squeeze prices higher. See more at UK housing affordability.

2. Switch to private rented sector will continue. If house prices continue to rise, more people will be looking for private rented accommodation.

Type of Property

housing

3. Growth in wealth inequality. Rising house prices benefits homeowners (typically older people). However, it reduces living standards of those without a home. The UK will increasingly become divided between those who own a home and those who don’t.

4. Upward pressure on rental prices. The shortage of housing will put upward pressure on the price of rented accommodation. Housing costs will take a bigger share of people’s incomes affecting their discretionary income.

 

Housing Stock in England

uk-housing-stock

source: Dwelling stock estimates ONS

 

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