Explaining Supply and Demand

inelastic-supply-rise-in-demand

Supply and demand are a fundamental basis of economics; they help explain the determination of price and output in different markets. The supply curve shows the amount of goods firms are willing to sell at different prices. At higher prices, it becomes more profitable to sell the goods, so supply tends to rise with the …

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Who does the UK owe money to?

Readers Question: Who exactly is the UK is in Debt to? Please can you simplify and explain?

There are two types of debt:

  1. Government debt (Public sector debt / National debt) – The money the government has borrowed, primarily from the private sector.
  2. External debt. Liabilities the UK owe to the rest of the world – this is both private sector and public sector.

Who does the government borrow from?

The UK government borrows mainly from

  • UK pension funds/insurance companies (29%)
  • Private corporations / other financial institutions
  • UK building societies. (e.g. building societies buy government gilts to invest their savings to get a decent return.)
  • UK Banks
  • UK Private investors
  • Foreign investors (foreign banks and foreign investment firms (2018 approx 20%)
  • Bank of England Asset Purchase facility (Quantitative easing)

gilt-holdings-by-sector Source: DMO

Change in debt composition 2003-2018

gilt-holdings-by-sector Source: HM Treasury UK debt report 2019/20

This shows overseas investors hold approx 20% of UK gilts.

Example

  • A pension fund will be interested in purchasing UK government gilts to gain a secure return on long-term investment.
  • A charity/firm with excess savings may purchase government gilts to get a good interest rate while it decides how to use the money. Retained profit from UK companies has increased in recent years, and corporations have become a bigger buyer of UK gilts.
  • A private individual may purchase gilts as part of a balanced portfolio of investment.

We owe money to ourselves

One feature of UK government borrowing is that 75% of the debt we are borrowing from UK citizens and UK institutions. It is like a transfer of pension funds to the government.

Foreign holdings of UK Debt

How much does the government owe to foreign nationals?

overseas-holdings-percentage-debt-dmo

UK Debt held by overseas investors (source: DMO)

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The importance of economics

importance-of-economics

Readers Question: What is the importance of economics?

Economics is concerned with the optimal distribution of resources in society. The subject involves

  • Understanding what happens in markets and the macroeconomy.
  • Examining statistics about the state of the economy and explaining their significance
  • Understanding different policy options and evaluating their likely outcomes.

Examples of the importance of economics

importance-of-economics

  1. Dealing with a shortage of raw materials. Economics provides a mechanism for looking at possible consequences as we run short of raw materials such as gas and oil. See also: Effects of a world without oil.
  2. How to distribute resources in society. To what extent should we redistribute income in society? Is inequality necessary to create economic incentives or does inequality create unnecessary economic and social problems?
  3. To what extent should the government intervene in the economy? A critical divide in economics is the extent to which the government should intervene in the economy. Free market economists, like Hayek and Friedman, argue for limited government intervention and free markets. Other economists, like Stiglitz or Krugman, argue government intervention can overcome inequality and the underprovision of public goods. For example – should the government provide health care free at the point of use or is it more efficient to encourage private health care? See also: To what extent should the government intervene in the economy?
  4. The principle of opportunity cost. Politicians win elections by promising more spending and cutting taxes. This is because lower taxes and more spending is what voters want to hear. However, an economist will be aware that everything has an opportunity cost. Spend more on subsidising free university education, and it means higher taxes and lower spending elsewhere. Giving students £4,000 a year to spend at university may be a noble ideal. But, is it the best use of public money? Are there better uses of money, such as spending on primary education? See: Opportunity Cost

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Zero lower bound rate (ZLB)

inflation-interest-rates-06-19

When reading economic articles in the past few years, you may frequently come across the reference to the ‘zero lower bound’ or ZLB.

inflation-interest-rates-06-19

What is the Zero Lower Bound rate?

In short – when interest rates can’t fall any further below 0%

Examples of ZLB

  1. UK interest rates were cut to 0.5% in March 2009 and have stayed there until 2013
  2. In Dec 2008, the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to between 0% and 0.25%. Interest rates stayed at 0% as unemployment rose from 7.3% to 10% at the end of 2009. Between Dec 2008 and 2013, the US has been at this zero lower bound of monetary policy.
  3. In April 2020, interest rates cut to zero in US, Europe and UK in response to Corona recession.


ZLB explained

  • The main tool of conventional monetary policy is interest rates, set by the Central Bank. If inflation is low and economic growth negative, the Central Bank will cut interest rates to stimulate demand and higher economic growth. (see effect of lower interest rates)
  • However, there may come a point when interest rates have fallen to zero and therefore, they can’t fall any further.
  • This is the zero lower bound rate – interest rates have fallen as far as they can.
  • Note: it is considered not practical to have negative nominal interest rates. No one would lend money at a negative interest rate – you would be better off just holding cash.
  • This means the Central Bank can no longer use interest rates to stimulate the economy. People often term this a liquidity trap.

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The Misery Index

misery-index

The misery index (sometimes known as the Economic Discomfort Index EDI ) is simply the sum of the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate. The higher the combined score, the worse the economic situation. The Misery index was developed by economist Arthur Okun. Where Unemployment rate (ut) and the current inflation rate (πt) High unemployment …

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Policies to reduce smoking

inelastic-demand-tax-shift-supply

Smoking causes an increased risk of cancer to both those who smoke and also to third party’s who breathe in other people’s smoke. It is a classic example of a demerit good. To reduce smoking rates, the government can choose policies from Higher tax Raising legal minimum age Restrictions on smoking in public places Subsidies …

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Sticky wages

Definition – Sticky wages is a concept to describe how in the real world, wages may be slow to change and get stuck above the equilibrium because workers resist nominal wage cuts. Wages can be ‘sticky’ for numerous reasons including – the role of trade unions, employment contracts, reluctance to accept nominal wage cuts and …

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Main Problems of UK Economy 2020

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Readers Question: What are the main problems of the current UK economic situation? Low economic growth and in particular stagnant real wage growth Poor productivity growth since 2008 – which affects long-term growth prospects. Uncertainty from Brexit and likely costs to trade from new custom arrangements. Manufacturing sector State of the housing market – expensive …

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